Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 69.656984 78.706775 89.238395 102.596313 119.384368 140.214741 168.750523
2024-12-29 59.715881 71.627547 86.957581 108.904528 140.991322 189.048231 273.567365
2025-01-05 51.805407 64.322015 81.428362 107.888789 150.865400 225.356621 389.800479
2025-01-12 45.853294 58.258650 75.921681 104.792199 155.567983 254.846262 527.051893
2025-01-19 40.707128 52.488305 69.714479 98.929759 153.252592 269.484362 652.848330
2025-01-26 39.507673 52.151549 71.450645 106.262680 177.628559 358.944903 1276.886040
2025-02-02 38.566627 52.017999 73.390698 114.326073 207.181055 495.457386 3500.408383
2025-02-09 36.742930 50.279818 72.384613 116.549076 224.575094 621.313335 12646.020363
2025-02-16 34.667734 47.921030 69.984020 115.430474 233.088771 729.959372 181905.195532
2025-02-23 32.841623 45.796762 67.731018 114.160699 240.849243 857.070113 NaN
2025-03-02 30.929605 43.377987 64.689389 110.627306 240.569777 942.468107 NaN
2025-03-09 29.612442 41.851521 63.121485 110.126815 250.016281 1137.631685 NaN
2025-03-16 27.614027 39.127948 59.239082 104.062081 239.835379 1154.760528 NaN
2025-03-23 27.221353 39.116609 60.477457 110.393916 277.911180 1968.547623 NaN
2025-03-30 26.062838 37.689674 58.833547 109.344562 287.568328 2582.581404 NaN
2025-04-06 24.800509 35.998502 56.515447 106.181557 286.915849 3049.635846 NaN
2025-04-13 23.364178 33.923973 53.283441 100.198525 271.359465 2927.571769 NaN
2025-04-20 23.322314 34.316330 55.020004 107.682762 324.021281 8853.440339 NaN
2025-04-27 23.290790 34.720123 56.825449 115.919661 392.924791 272942.401682 NaN
2025-05-04 22.767767 34.183091 56.588358 118.191778 430.967124 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 22.031502 33.205443 55.313098 117.048394 445.213076 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 21.335629 32.267818 54.053207 115.750656 458.068464 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 20.526777 31.079914 52.160020 112.140395 449.801148 NaN NaN